This Thursday, the ECB cut its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% and cut its bank deposit rate, from minus 0.3% to minus 0.4%. The bank will also expand its quantitative easing program from €60bn to €80bn a month. This new QE will put a lot of money into the market which is intend to increase the inflation rate thus achieving an economic boost. Meanwhile, the Fed has also considered to a negative interest rate range due to the collapse of commodities prices in January. But now this topic is out of the table since the oil rally under the prospect that the coming conference between oil exporters in Moscow will work together on freezing the output at the end of this month. However, the QE in US never stops. Fed continually put the money into the market to stimulus the economy which makes the Wall Street eye more on the TIPS, Treasury inflation-protected securities.
The upturn in U.S. core inflation and rise in oil prices are causing money to pour into a trade that was one of Wall Street's favorites heading into 2016, according to Société Générale SA.
Late in 2015, strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Morgan Stanley were pounding the table on Treasury inflation-protected securities, based on the belief that market-based measures of price pressures over the medium term were far too subdued.
Breakeven inflation rates, however, continued to slide early in the year amid renewed weakness in oil and financial market turmoil. But conditions have since changed materially. U.S. core PCE inflation—the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of price increases—rose 1.7 percent year over year in January to reach its highest level in almost three years. Higher oil prices are also buoying the outlook for inflation, with front-month West Texas Intermediate futures contracts up nearly 50 percent off their lows.
A chart from SocGen shows that in the four weeks ended Mar. 2, flows into inflation-protected U.S. bond funds picked up steam:
While the upward arrow in the chart might be an ambitious extrapolation, it doesn't leave any doubt about whether SocGen thinks these inflows will continue.
"In a context where deflation fears were too strong and are now gradually normalising, these inflows into inflation-protected bond funds clearly make sense, both in the U.S. and in Europe," wrote Alain Bokobza, the bank's head of global asset allocation.