If momentum is currency then Rick Santorum is getting richer. Although his wins in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri didn't bring him any delegates, he certainly turned up the heat on all the other candidates. If polls mean anything the candidates better stand up and take notice because Santorum is now on a level playing field with Mitt Romney according to polls conducted by CBS News-New York Times, Gallup, the Pew Research Center, and CNN.
This is far from a small development in the U.S. Presidential primaries, and if Santorum puts in as good a showing in the upcoming Michigan primary the entire Republican primary could be turned on its head. Poll results can be confusing if you were to compare them from week to week, but Santorum is dominating all the polls right now, so the only thing in doubt is how the other candidates will respond.
History has shown that the Republican primaries are a volatile set of events and no one event should be overestimated in its importance to the final outcome of the race. That being said, underestimating the power of momentum and the psychology that goes along with it would be a huge mistake for any of the candidates. The burning question for Santorum's camp is whether or not he can sustain his surge.
Most Republican voters are not intimately familiar with Santorum and his platform outside of their views of him from the debate podium along the campaign trail. Many naysayers even say Santorum's biggest asset is being the antithesis of Mitt Romney and that will surely not endure throughout the race to a point it will win him the Republican nomination. The upcoming debates will give Santorum the opportunity to make his mark beyond what got him to this point and that will clear the air about whether he is worthy of the being the nominee for the GOP.
History is another factor that will come into play in the overall picture and the final outcome. Rick Santorum's record has been called into question by Mitt Romney, as Romney has suggested Santorum has not shown himself to be the true conservative he claims to be. Insomuch as he is the anti-Romney Santorum certainly appeals to the GOP contingent furthest from being Romney supporters. This includes voters that are tea party activists, social conservatives, evangelicals, and even Republicans with educations falling short of a college degree.
The big question that seems to be swirling around about Santorum is whether his surge in popularity is more than just an expression of disdain in voters' minds of Romney and his platform. His big challenge at this point in the race is to convert his new found popularity into enduring support. Can he turn his momentum into a real, lasting strength that can take him to the promised land of becoming the Presidential nominee? Santorum stands by his assertion that he will be a more competent challenger to Obama, contending he will make a clearer contrast with Obama.
One of the facts that can't be avoided or overlooked in all this is that there are still many cities and many voters to win in this race. Santorum has big momentum in his camp right now, but whether or not he can sustain it is uncertain. History is rife with cases of candidates who had a lead at some point in the primaries, only to lose steam and eventually the bid for the candidacy. The money machine Romney has on his side is no doubt a big factor that will affect the final outcome, but Santorum has something Romney doesn't. Santorum connects with voters in a way that Romney has not been able to. The rapport Santorum builds with people, and the speed with which he does it, is a clear advantage he takes with him into every fight.
Simply being the antithesis of Mitt Romney won't carry Rick Santorum to the Republican nomination for President. However, if history is any barometer of future success, Santorum's ability to relate to people may prove to be a formidable asset to his campaign. Romney, Gingrich and everyone else better take notice and, at the very least, learn from Santorum's recent surge in the polls and votes. If they don't, they will do so at their own peril.
Blogger: John Sanchez |
