November retail sales dipped from the month before but still showed the sixth consecutive monthly year-over-year gain by government calculations and set the stage for a healthy holiday shopping season compared with last year despite the pandemic, the National Retail Federation said today.
“Consumers held back on spending in November as virus rates spiked, states imposed retail restrictions and congressional stimulus discussions were gridlocked,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “While consumers have been bolstered by increases in disposable income and savings, it’s clear that additional fiscal stimulus from Congress is needed and we are hopeful it will be passed soon as we enter the final stretch of the holiday season. With retail sales up 8.8 percent versus November 2019, we still expect a strong holiday season compared with last year.”
“The month-over-month decline isn’t surprising because some spending was pulled forward into October by campaigns encouraging consumers to shop early and shop safe,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Despite that, as we go into the final weeks of 2020, year-over-year trends show spending is holding up well regardless of month-to-month fluctuations. Nonetheless, we have to remember the remainder of the holiday season depends critically on the virus. We are optimistic, but spending could shift into a lower gear if the virus continues to spread.”
The U.S. Census Bureau said today that overall retail sales in November were down 1.1 percent seasonally adjusted from October but up 4.1 percent year-over-year. That compares with a monthly drop of 0.1 percent but a yearly gain of 5.5 percent in October.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales – which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – showed November was down 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted from October but up 8.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year. That compared with a decrease of 0.1 percent month-over-month and an increase of 10.5 percent year-over-year in October. NRF’s numbers were up 10.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year on a three-month moving average.
Monthly numbers fluctuate even when adjusted for seasonal variations, making year-over-year comparisons a better indication of long-term trends. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales have increased each month since May under NRF’s calculation and since June under the Census Bureau calculation. Retail sales during the first 11 months of the year were up 6.6 percent, according to NRF’s calculation.
NRF has forecast that holiday sales will increase between 3.6 percent and 5.2 percent over 2019 to a total between $755.3 billion and $766.7 billion. While NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31, NRF research shows 42 percent of consumers started holiday shopping sooner than usual this year after NRF urged the public to shop safe and shop early. On average, consumers had about half their holiday shopping left to do as of Thanksgiving weekend.
November saw year-over-year gains in seven out of nine retail categories, led by double-digit increases for online sales, building materials and sporting goods stores.
Specifics from key retail sectors during November include:
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 1.6 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 8.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Building materials and garden supply stores were up 1.1 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 17.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Online and other non-store sales were up 0.2 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 30 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Sporting goods stores were down 0.6 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 14 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.7 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 2.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- General merchandise stores were down 1 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 1.1 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 0.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 3.5 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 9.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Clothing and clothing accessory stores were down 6.8 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 19.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail thrive. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $3.9 trillion to annual GDP and supporting one in four U.S. jobs — 52 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies.
J. Craig Shearman (855) NRF-PRESS