To start the week off, traders felt that there was a low likelihood the FED would increase rates at its policy meeting this coming week amid mixed economic data and ahead of the Presidential election.
According to Reuters, traders put about a 3-in-4 chance the U.S. central bank would increase the target range on their policy rates by a quarter point to 0.50-0.75 percent during the mid-December meeting. U.S. gross domestic product produced a stronger-than-expected 2.9 percent annualized growth rate in the third quarter, analysts said.
“Investment is still somewhat sluggish, consumption continues to grow solidly, and this adds up to GDP growth trending near 2 percent,” Credit Suisse chief economist James Sweeney wrote in a research note on Monday. He added recent remarks from some Fed policymakers hinted a rate increase is likely in the near future.
In the meantime, the FBI plans to review more emails related to Hillary Clinton’s private server, just a week before the elections which has reduced earlier expectations of her victory. A slight panic was spurred during mid-afternoon trading regarding this matter.
Federal funds futures implied traders saw a 6 percent chance the Fed would raise rates at its two-day meeting that kicks off on Tuesday, compared with an 8 percent chance late on Friday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch program. They predicted a 73 percent chance of a rate hike this December.