Trump leads by one point in Missouri

If the results of Monmouth University Polling Institute are correct, Donald Trump has taken over the lead from Hillary Clinton in Missouri by one percentage point. The survey revealed that Trump has the support of 44 percent of the respondent voting population, with Clinton enjoying the confidence of 43 percent. The figures may be erroneous- they fall within the admissible 4.9 percentage points error margin.

Republican “Red” stronghold

About eight percent of total respondents told those taking the poll that they intend to vote for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate. One percent would vote for any other candidate barring the previously mentioned three. About five percent of the respondents continue to remain undecided. It is to be mentioned that Missouri is decidedly a red state. It was during the last four presidential elections. The same pattern was also seen during the conventions held in July. According to Patrick Murray of the polling institute, the race was closely run during the election of the last president. He reminded that the same condition existed in 2008. Romney won by 12 points in 2012.  The total number of respondents in the poll was 401 voting eligible individuals and the survey was conducted over the phone during August 19 to August 22 period.

Mitt Romney, the Republican Presidential candidate during the last election, comfortably won Missouri in 2012. During the earlier election, in 2008, John McCain won by almost 4,000 votes. Three million ballots were cast in the state at that time. Republican wins were also seen in 2004, when President George W. Bush won the state by a seven point margin. He previously won Missouri by three points in his earlier election. Present day poll results state that independents were split with 40 percent for Trump and about 35 percent for Clinton. Only 14 percent support Johnson.

Different from other states

Even though Clinton has a clear 65 point lead amongst minority voters in Missouri- a state that become infamous for the race related Ferguson riots in 2014, Trump continues to be about 13 points forward among the white voters. The lead continues even among the white women, with 54 percent rooting for Trump and Clinton having support of only 36 percent. The figures are in aberration with the national trend, where it is seen that Trump has more support among the male white voters compared to the female ones.

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